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降息和股市
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降息和股市
闲着也是闲着,再聊聊国债利差
先看看十年国债和三个月国债的利差,倒挂意味着利差是负的,也就是说,短期国债收益率超过长期国债收益率。想说以下几点:
1、现在正在进行中的倒挂,从2022年10月延续到今天,足足有16个月了,同学们在见证历史。
2、历史上重大的降息和升息一样,都来得迅猛。也就是说FED有下猛药的传统,长痛不如短痛,哈哈~。
3、历史数据表明,在走出利差倒挂,归正以后的几个月到两年的时间里,市场就会喝一壶,也就是图中的几个灰色地带。印证江湖戏说的,降息过程中FED会搞砸,带来衰退 (其实是衰退逼的FED下猛药降息)。有空可以看看旧贴:https://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/6200382.html。
感觉上,离FED搞砸的那一天还有些时日,所以可以继续马照跑舞照跳一段时间。短期调整是有可能,最近涨得是有些多了,但吃住大部分鱼身是不是更牙蜜一些。
等到利差倒挂走到尽头,也就是说在FED完成降息2-3个点后,就得警觉一些,到时做大仓位的抉择。更不要说,万一老鲍这次有如神助,搞出个软着陆来,市场会说要把通胀丢失的加倍找回(看起来有点像是奢望~)。


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降息和股市 - by fee - 09-16-2024, 03:58 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by wilson - 09-16-2024, 04:26 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by fox - 09-16-2024, 09:41 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by gao - 09-16-2024, 09:43 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by lala - 09-16-2024, 09:44 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by ddd - 09-16-2024, 09:45 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by abc - 09-16-2024, 09:47 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by undo - 09-16-2024, 09:48 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by gary - 09-16-2024, 09:50 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by meta - 09-16-2024, 09:51 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by aon - 09-16-2024, 09:53 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by tom - 09-16-2024, 10:03 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by loop - 09-17-2024, 06:26 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by for - 09-17-2024, 06:27 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by yuyu - 09-17-2024, 06:29 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by yam - 09-17-2024, 06:31 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by tommy - 09-17-2024, 06:33 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by tary - 09-17-2024, 06:36 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by fff - 09-17-2024, 06:37 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by eee - 09-17-2024, 06:39 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by ccc - 09-17-2024, 06:45 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by bbb - 09-17-2024, 06:46 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by bar - 09-17-2024, 06:47 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by fee - 09-17-2024, 06:49 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by foo - 09-17-2024, 06:50 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by fox - 09-17-2024, 06:57 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by gao - 09-17-2024, 06:58 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by lala - 09-17-2024, 09:10 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by abc - 09-17-2024, 09:12 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by undo - 09-17-2024, 09:13 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by gary - 09-17-2024, 09:14 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by meta - 09-17-2024, 09:16 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by aon - 09-17-2024, 09:17 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by tom - 09-17-2024, 09:18 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by tiff - 09-17-2024, 09:19 PM
RE: 降息和股市 - by tom - 09-28-2024, 03:30 PM

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